Cars of the Future - Part 1

Introduction 'Futurology' vital to ecology

STUDYING THE FUTURE TODAY - AND TAKING MAJOR STEPS TO PROPERLY PREPARE FOR IT - CAN SAVE MAN AND THE AUTOMOBILE FROM DISASTER.

 [Crowded cities may be able to solve auto parking problems with shopping towers such as this, created by Ford Motor Company designers.]  PICTURE CAPTION

 By Jack Seagnotti

 Ecologists have sounded a warning: If we continue to abuse our vital life-support systems - air, water and land - death is the penalty. It was Christmas, 1968, when astronauts Frank Borman, James A. Lovell, Jr. and William A. Anders - making a moon orbit - called the world's attention to the beauty and rarity of our planet. Since then, there has been a lot of talk, and some action, about saving our air, water and land. So much so that a new kind of science is very popular today - "futurology," a term used to describe determining what the problems of the future are likely to be and trying to prepare for them today.

Those who have confidence in the future say: "if we can go to the moon, we can solve our ecology problems," But will we take the necessary steps and will we take them soon enough? History shows that often times we have not seen our major problems in proper focus and have waited too long before taking proper action.  The automobile has been cited as the number one cause of air pollution and there are cries of banning the internal-combustion engine. Use of the automobile appears to become more and more regulated by laws - not only legislation for emission control but safety. These two factors, more than anything, will determine what the cars of the future will be like as we approach the 21st Century. Where do we go from here? Will we ever again live in an atmosphere of clean air? A publication recently released by the Public Information and Education Division of the Air Pollution Control District of the-County of Los Angeles tells the story: "There really was a time when the air was free of smog. Then men came together and changed it all. A simple, decentralized agrarian society became complex, centralized and industrial

 [Smog is trapped by a temperature inversion at approximately 300 feet above the ground with upper portion of. Los Angeles City Hall visible in clear air above base of inversion. ] PICTURE CAPTION

Americans abandoned their farms and poured into the nation's cities, providing the labor force for the new industrial colossus founded on steam and electric power, labor-saving machinery and improved processes.

"A civilization unlike all that had passed before began to take form. It had a broader base, moved faster and soared higher. But it became abundantly clear that a high price was being paid for this expansion.

"Blankets of smoke and grime appeared over cities; the atmosphere thickened. Instead of a rolling landscape, modem man gazed into billowing brown and grey-colored clouds; what he did not see was even more alarming - most of the contaminants were invisible but potentially deadly gases. Without knowing it, he lived in the embrace of Ms most insidious modern foe.

"At first it did not matter. Unwanted by-products from industry were carelessly discarded; spent substances from homes were also easily abandoned. For a long time, the land and the air were capable of absorbing the wastes of man.

"But man multiplied and so did his conveniences. Industry, which caused the first great corruption of the air, now found a new partner - the motor vehicle.

"Today, the sky has become a sewer and people, individually and collectively, are both instigators and sufferers. "

Air pollution can be a very serious problem. History has proven that to us. In December, 1930, some 6,000 became ill and 63 died in the highly industrialized valley of the Meuse River, Belgium, when contaminated air was trapped by a thermal inversion. In October, 1948, air became thick with air contaminants in the industrial community of Donora, Pennsylvania, and the smog siege killed 20 people and made 5,910 ill. Sinfflar weather in London in 1952 during a five-day period resulted in the death of 4,000 persons. In a 1956 smog attack, 1,000 people died in London. Another smog incident in 1962 saw 750 Londoners die. Between 175 and 260 people died' as a result of severe air pollution in New York in 1953 and another 150 died in a 1966 smog siege in New York.

Those catastrophes cannot be blamed solely on the automobile. Other things contribute to polluted air: factories, heating furnaces, power plants, trash incinerators, and now jet planes. "Even if it were possible to eliminate 100 percent of the pollution from all motor vehicles in the U.S. by 1975, we would still be faced with by far the major share of today's air pollution problem," says Edward N. Cole, president of General Motors. "It is therefore important that sound technical priorities be established by government so that available funds can be utilized for the greatest overall progress. National efforts to reduce overall air pollution must involve all major sources of pollution - not only motor vehicles, but also industrial and electric generating plants, home and business heating facilities and refuse disposal operations."

Control of exhaust emissions is the biggest problem facing the auto industry. But Detroit has another major task - building a safer automobile. During its 70-year history, the automobile has taken 1,750,000 lives, far more than all deaths in all wars in American history. Ten times as many people have been killed by automobiles than in the Vietnam war during the nine years of the war.

So it appears the automobile has become a villain in our society - a polluter of air and a killer on the streets. We must learn to live with the automobile. We need it. It is a way of life. It affects most everything we do. One out of every five jobs is related in some way to the auto industry. Ninety percent of all travel is by automobile. Some 10,000,000 new cars will be sold this year. Sales of new cars are expected to hit 13.7 million annually by 1979. More than 29 percent of U.S. households own at least two cars and the number is growing. By 1979, there will probably be 26 million two-car families. With the work week becoming shorter, and Americans having more leisure time and money, travel will increase. The automobile is a prime moving force in the economy of the nation. Transportation is the nation's largest employer and the largest consumer of raw materials. It has tremendous impact on our society and our own personal lives.

The decades of the 1950's and 1960's have seen high performance emphasized in America's cars. It is a big thing with the youth of America. By 1979, it is predicted that 41.9 of the nation's population will be in the age 15-24 bracket. What kind of cars will those young people be driving? Will they get what they want?

Besides smog control and safety, cars of the future will be affected by new living habits, standards of taste, technological advances in not only the auto industry but related industries, and the condition of the economy.

What kind of engine will power cars of the future? Will automated highways become a reality? Can cars be made to travel on rails or even fly? Surely, electronic applications will have a significant affect on cars of the future - functions or components that will be monitored and controlled. Warning devices and guidance aids for drivers will probably become a reality in the not too distant future.

Because of the ecology crisis, government and the public are taking stronger roles in the direction the auto industry will go. Roy D. Chapin, Jr., chairman of the board of American Motors Corporation, has some viewpoints worth noting:

"The relationships between government and industry, between free market competition and government planning are changing and will change more. Because decisions concerning these relationships will profoundly affect the nature of our society, they should not be made by the few. They should reflect the beliefs and wishes of the majority.

"The course we choose must be based on the fact that our nation's restless, urgent need for growth has not diminished but is greater than ever before. AU people in America do not have the material benefits of life they need, let alone those they want. At the same time, we must see to it that necessary economic growth is not incompatible with other values that make life worth living.

"We must take into account that the costs of doing all that we have to do will be very high, and that people, as taxpayers or consumers will pay these costs. This is why our nation cannot afford to follow a trial and error approach to problems of the Seventies, based on piecemeal political action. Hastily conceived remedies rarely work, as we know so well from experience.

"One thing above all is certain. We have the resources, in the power of free people choosing wisely, in the tremendous economic strength we have developed, to go on from here to fashion the best of all possible worlds.

"It will not be perfect; it will not satisfy everyone. But hopefully, we will never downgrade our dreams and our vision to match only what we are able to accomplish at any given time. It is because our ideals and our vision always exceed our capability that we have come so far, and that despite the differences and the obstacles of this time, we can look to the future with assurance that America's miracle - economic, social, or political - has really only begun to take form. We are a nation of creators and doers, whose dedication has been to solving problems rather than deploring them!

"This is our strength and this is our challenge." This magazine is dedicated to that challenge - the designing and engineering of cars of the future. Experts in the automotive field were consulted to bring you the varied articles that follow.

Next Topic - Great Challenges: Design & Engineering